Why are the Lions so bad? A look at the numbers.
The Lions have arguably the third-best passing offense in the NFC, behind the Cowboys and Packers. Of course, the Lions pass far more than the Cowboys, and have less yards, half as many scores and a far worse passer rating. So there is a significant drop after the top two. And what kills the Lions are sacks. The Lions have been sacked 50 times this year, 10 more than the next closest NFC team. Dallas has given up 16 sacks.
The Lions are pretty effective when they run ball at 4.0 yards per rush, but they do not run nearly enough. They average 19.5 rushing attempts per game, by far the fewest in the NFC. This leads to a disproportionate time of possession of 4 minutes per game on average.
The Lions aren’t horrible against the run (3.9 average), but teams pound them into submission. The Lions give up 26 rushing attempts per game and that is the most in the NFC. And what really jumps out, is opponents convert a first down on 26% of the rushes against the Lions. So, while the Lions do not give up many big plays on the ground, very few in fact, they are still over-powered in the running game.
But the Detroit run defense looks like an All Pro unit compared to the pass coverage. The Lions allow 70.1% completions, worst in the NFC, and they aren’t dink and dunks (7.3 y/pa), either. The Lions have allowed 24 TD passes, worst in the NFC. And the Lions allow an opponent passer rating of 93.9, second-worst in the NFC.
So why are the Lions so bad?
1. They pass too much.
2. They can’t protect the quarterback.
3. The defense gets worn down in the running game, likely due to a lopsided time of possession.
4. The pass defense is horrible.
And all of those lead to the Lions not being able to convert third downs (30%) and not getting off the field themselves on third downs (45%).
Tony Romo and his receivers are going to have a field day. So are DeMarcus Ware, Greg Ellis and the defenders. Not to be too optimistic, but how can you not? I’ll be surprised if this game doesn’t get ugly.
